My good friend Tom Heck was in town a few weeks ago. Tom is a genus when it comes to Team Building and liberating the passion that resides in all of us. It didn’t take him long to get me all riled up and passionate about one of our favorite issues, presidential politics and seasonal history. So, while Tom had his diet soda and salad? I savored a fine Irish “adult” beverage while consuming a plate of Elsa’s famous Buffalo wings. By the time I reached for the last bone a great conversation had ensued that lead to a few bold convictions.
For those of you who have heard my presentations you know I believe that history turn in seasons and that generation move in cycles. Presently I argue that we are in the first stages of a new winter, a time of crisis, and it is usually the “idealist” generation (presently represented by the Baby Boomers) that is in power during this season. Famous idealist leaders of the past include FDR, Winston Churchill and Abram Lincoln.
All three of these gentlemen were great visionaries in a time of unparallel crisis.
So, while chopping down on his ever so healthy salad, Tom jumped in. “James T., if we are in winter and winter is a time of crisis, who will be our next President?” Good question. Without hesitation I told him Dr. Condelisa Rice. Which I must admit was brilliant! “But” Tom chimed in, “if we are deeper into a period of crisis will America turn to a woman?” Now that was a pretty darn interesting question! Politically incorrect too! Love it!
O.k. The next president will be a conservative and therefore might be an ethnic minority, female or both. The Republican Party will be the first to produce one or the other as President. If we are deep into a period of crisis no "cut and run" Democrat will win the office weather they be black, white, male or female. I stand on an early prediction, which stated that if Kerry lost teh Presidental election, a generation would pass before another Democrat sat in the White House. But! If a crisis hits well before 2008, will America nominate a female candidate out of the primary? Ahhhhhhh, NO! Can’t see it. I don’t see us being that open minded in a time of crisis. So where does that leave us? Which conservative man would America trust in a time of crisis?
Looking to the past I see Ike and Grant. But those selections didn’t come in winter. They were both post crisis presidents. I was on my second adult beverage by now so my thinking was loose and free. Norman Schwarzkopf! Can you see it? I could until a few days later. Tom called back with General Tommy Franks. Now that’s good. Real good. I must admit I like them both, but would America turn to a general in a time of crisis?
Throughout our history, there has never been a general that has occupied the oval office during a secular winter.
In light of this I am force to go back to my original prediction. (Sometimes you just have to go with the gut! Or is it my heart?) During times of crisis Americans gravitate towards hope and idealism. Therefore the next president will be a boomer, will have a positive, optimistic outlook and she will be conservative. If the she is not Rice, than all bets are off and my prediction doesn’t matter.
However, if I am right, crown me King of the Buffalo wing and buy me adult beverages for the rest of my life!
Comments